Disaster recovery will give way to continuous operation. Take down one site and end-users won't notice - like card and shelf redundancy in high reliability telecom and aerospace products.
So Where Are We Now?
We have painted a grand plan. Is it likely to be followed? It doesn't really matter. What matters is getting the ideas on the table so that the market place starts demanding them. This is what will ultimately drive the industry. Users are too focused on their own shops and problems to be able to paint this plan. Vendors and consultants see dozens, if not hundreds of sites per year. They must interact with users to form this vision and not simply to meet today's requirements.
In the meantime, we need to understand where we are now. There are dozens of tools and each has their strengths. With input from others, this author will attempt to refine the definition of CM generations so that we can measure our existing tools and get a real idea of what it means to leap from one generation of CM to another. One goal will be to be able to compare CM tools more objectively.
Perhaps you disagree with some of these projections or perhaps you see them happening along different timelines. I welcome your input.