# Estimating the Unknown: Dates or Budgets, Part 4

[article]
Summary:

In Part 3, you had some knowledge of the team’s velocity. This is the option of when you do not have knowledge of the team’s velocity, because this team has not worked together before, or has not worked on a project like this before. You are all coming in blind.

In Part 3 , you had some knowledge of the team’s velocity. This is the option of when you do not have knowledge of the team’s velocity, because this team has not worked together before, or has not worked on a project like this before. You are all coming in blind.

## Your Zeroth Best Bet: Wait to Estimate Until You Know How the Team Works

If you have not worked on a project like this with this team, you have other problems. It’s not worth estimating the entire backlog at the beginning of the project, because the team members have no idea what relative estimation means to anyone else on the team. The team needs to work together. So, ask them to start together as quickly as possible. Yes, even before they estimate anything. They can work on anything—fixing defects, developing the stories for this product, anything at all. You all need data.

Since you have a ranked backlog, the easiest approach might be to start with a kanban board so you can visualize any bottlenecks.  If necessary, use kanban inside an iteration, so you have the rhythm of the iteration surrounding the visualization of the kanban.
If you keep the iteration to one or two weeks, you will see if you have any bottlenecks. The shorter the iteration, the more often you will get feedback, the more valuable your data.

Once the team has successfully integrated several features, now, you can start estimating together and your estimates will mean something. Use the confidence level and re-estimate until the team’s confidence reaches 90%. How long will that take? I don’t know. That’s why you have a kanban board and you’re using iterations. I have seen new-to-agile teams take 6-7 iterations before they have a velocity they can rely on at all.

If you cannot wait to estimate, because someone is breathing down your neck, demanding an estimate, look at your backlog. How small are the stories? Here’s my rule of thumb: If you eyeball the story and say, “Hmm, if we put everyone on the team on this story, and we think we can attack this story together and get it done in a day,” then the story is the right size.

Now, you can add up those stories, which are about one team-day in size, give yourself a 50% confidence level, because you don’t really know, and proceed with “Use Timeboxes, Better Your Estimate as You Proceed” in Part 3 .

Now, if someone is breathing fire down your neck, chances are good that no one has taken the time to create a backlog of right-size stories. But, maybe you got lucky. Maybe you have a product owner who’s been waiting for you, as a team, to be available to work on this project for the last six months, and has been lovingly hand-crafting those stories. And, maybe I won the lottery.

## Your Second Best Bet: SWAG and Refine

Assume your manager has asked you for a date and you did not get empirical data from the team, but instead you decide to develop a SWAG,  a Scientific, Wild Tush Guess.

SWAG Suggestions:

• If you must develop a SWAG, develop it with the team. Remember, a SWAG is a guess. It’s an educated guess, but it is a guess. You want to develop a SWAG the same way you estimate the stories, as a team.
• Develop a 3-point estimate: optimistic, likely, and pessimistic. Alternatively, develop a confidence level in the estimate.

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Johanna Rothman

Johanna Rothman, known as the “Pragmatic Manager,” helps organizational leaders see problems and risks in their product development. She helps them recognize potential “gotchas,” seize opportunities, and remove impediments. Johanna was the Agile 2009 conference chair. She is the technical editor for Agile Connection and the author of these books:

• Hiring Geeks That Fit
• Manage Your Project Portfolio: Increase Your Capacity and Finish More Projects
• The 2008 Jolt Productivity award-winning Manage It! Your Guide to Modern, Pragmatic Project Management
• Behind Closed Doors: Secrets of Great Management
• Hiring the Best Knowledge Workers, Techies & Nerds: The Secrets and Science of Hiring Technical People

Johanna is working on a book about agile program management. She writes columns for Stickyminds.com and projectmanagementcom and blogs on her website, jrothman.com, as well on createadaptablelife.com.

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