Risk Management

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A practical toolkit for identifying, analyzing, and coping with project risks
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case of selecting the strategy with the highest estimate value and the best fit across all the critical quality requirements. If the design ideas are complementary then the aim is to choose which strategies to implement first. If the strategies are
alternatives, then you are simply looking to determine which one to pick.

TABLE 4
A measure of the effectiveness of strategy 'Big Idea' can be found by adding together its percentage impacts across all the qualities

QUALITY

PAST-PLAN

Big Idea

 

Reliability

900->1,000 hours MTBF

50%+/-10% 

 

Maintainability

10 min. fix to 5 min. to fix.

100%+/-50%

 
   

150%+/-60%

 

Estimate of total effect of Big Idea on all goals

 In addition to looking at the effectiveness of the individual strategies in impacting the qualities, the cost of the individual strategies also needs to be considered, see next section.

Quality to Cost Ratio : For each individual strategy, calculate the quality-to-cost ratio (also known as the benefit-to-cost ratio). For quality, use the estimate calculated in the previous section. For cost, use the percentage drain on the overall budget of the strategy or use the actual cost.

The overall cost figure used should take into account both the cost of developing or acquiring the strategy and, the cost of operationally running the strategy over the chosen time scale. Sometimes, specific aspects of resource utilization also need to be taken into account. For example, maybe staff utilization is a critical factor and therefore a strategy that doesn't utilize scarce programming skills becomes much more attractive.

My experience is that comparison of the 'bang for the buck' of strategies often wakes people up dramatically to ideas they have previously under- or over-valued.

Average Credibility / Risk Analysis : Once we have all the credibility data (i.e. the credibility's for all the estimates of the impacts of all the strategies on all the qualities), we can calculate the average credibility of each strategy and, the average credibility of achieving each quality. This information is very powerful, because it helps us understand the risk involved. For example, "the average credibility, quality controlled, for this
alternative strategy is 0.8". Sounds good! This approach also saves executive meeting time for those who hold the purse strings.

Principle 3. Design out unacceptable risk
Unacceptable risk needs to be 'designed out' of the system consciously at all stages, at all levels in all areas, e.g. architecture, purchasing, contracting, development, maintenance and human factors.

Once you have the completed initial IE table, you are in a position to identify the unacceptable risks and design them out of the system. Unacceptable risks include:

  • Any quality or resource attribute where the sum of the %Impacts of all the proposed strategies does not total 200%. (A 100% safety factor has been assumed to reduce the risk of failure.)
  • Any strategy providing i) a low total for the sum of its %Impacts, ii) very low credibility or iii) low benefit-to-cost ratio.

New strategies will have to be found that reduce these risks. In some cases, it may be decided that the levels set for the objectives are unrealistic and they may be modified instead.

Within software engineering, the art of designing a system to meet multiple quality and cost targets, is almost unknown [GILB88]. However, I have no doubt that there is great potential in conscious design to reduce risks. For example, it is a hallowed engineering principle to be conservative and use known technology. However, this concept has not quite caught on in software engineering technology, where 'new is good', even if we do not know much about its risks.

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